Market Viability for IPng

                                 John Curran


Market Viability as an IPng Criteria

  o  Technology adoption is driven by consumer demand

  o  Successful technologies either provide new capabilities
     or reduce costs to the consumer

  o  An assessment of IPng deployment costs and capabilities
     is necessary to determine market viability


Technology "Push" doesn't always work

  o  Computer manufacturers sometimes win and sometimes fail
     with this strategy (e.g., IPv4)

  o  A strong non-vendor product can overcome a vendor-supplied
     solution if the return on investment is high (e.g., Novell
     versus OS/2)

  o  IPng may have difficulty competing with IPv4, given that
     IPv4 is both successful and robust


Why will customers migrate to IPng?

  o  New Functionality                    (Maybe)
     -  Autoconfiguration & Autoregistration 
     -  Mobility
     -  Security
     -  Resource Reservation

  o  Reduced Costs                        (No) 
     -  IPng will increase costs during deployment

  o  Better Connectivity                  (Maybe)


IPng Connectivity for IPv4 sites

  o  Prior to address depletion, new sites will have IPv4 addresses

     -  Vendors will be shipping both IPv4 and IPng for some time
     -  Sites have no reason to "turn up" IPng

  o  Once the IPv4 address depletion occurs:

     -  IPng addresses do not provide complete connectivity to all
        IPv4 sites in a post-address depletion time frame

     -  Sites which cannot obtain a valid IPv4 address will seek
        Internet services which can provide complete access to the
        IPv4 Internet

     -  Companies will form products to provide transparent access to 
        the IPv4 Internet via dynamic translation mechanisms


Conclusion

  o  Given the proliferation of Network Address Translation devices with
     better IPv4 access, IPng may not attain market viability

  o  IPng must offer some new capabilities so that a significant number
     of sites will switch to IPng during the transition period prior to
     IPv4 address depletion

  o  Improved functionality over IPv4 and a dynamic method for 
     interoperating with all IPv4 hosts could make the difference for 
     IPng